It is simply no longer possible to believe much of the clinical research that is published, or to rely on the judgment of trusted physicians or authoritative medical guidelines. I take no pleasure in this conclusion, which I reached slowly and reluctantly over my two decades as an editor of The New England Journal of Medicine.”[Bold Emphasis Added]

– Marcial Angel, Former Editor Of The New England Journal of Medicine
Source: New York Review of Books, January 15, 2009, “Drug Companies & Doctors: A Story Of Corruption”.

Zy Marquiez
March 27, 2020

Days after the UK downgrades COVID-19 threat, highly-cited epidemiologist Neil Ferguson who projected 2.2 million dead in the United States at one point, drastically revised his Coronavirus death toll projection, which he carried out for the London Imperial College.

In a DailyWire piece by Amanda Prestigiacomo titled, “Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection, not only did Fergusson give his projection for possible US deaths at 2.2 million, but also estimated 500,000 potential deaths for the UK.

Nonetheless, those estimates have been decreased by orders of magnitude, which is incredibly concerning given how much Ferguson’s model was cited early on.  This is problematic because Ferguson’s model helped spawn a lot of the fear amid the early chaos of the coronavirus outbreakNow, Ferguson’s estimate of 500,000 has dropped to 20,000 in the UK.

How could Ferguson’s model be off by orders of magnitude?  Because the virus had a higher rate of transmission than expected and was spreading earlier than Ferguson was able to ascertain.  As such, the high death rate that was part of Ferguson projection was based on an incomplete assessment of the population, thus making the potential death rate in the beginning seem much larger than it should have been.

As Prestigiacomo states in her incisive piece:

“A higher rate of transmission than expected means that more people have the virus than previously expected; when the number of those with coronavirus is divided by the number of deaths, therefore, the mortality rate for the disease drops.”

In fact, Ferguson’s COVID-19 model that he was forced to revise was heavily criticized by Professor Gupta, who herself has a Coronavirus model as part of a modeling study for Oxford.  Gupta stated:

“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model..”[Bold Emphasis Added]

With a death toll projection that was downgraded by orders of magnitude that helped spawn massive fear that is affecting the livelihood of hundreds of millions, can you really blame Professor Gupta’s criticism?

Gupta’s model is different however, and that model’s projections concluded that:

“…the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that
as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19.”[Bold Emphasis Added]

On this, Prestigiacomo from DailyWire stated:

“If her model is accurate, fewer than one in a thousand who’ve been infected with COVID-19 become sick enough to need hospitalization, leaving the vast majority with mild cases or free of symptoms.”[Bold Emphasis Added]

THAT is NOT something you will hear in the mainstream media even consider.  The intriguing part is that, the 1 in 1000 (<0.1%) rate from Gupta’s model is almost exactly like the rate that meta-research specialist from Stanford, Professor John P.A. Ioannidis mentioned in his piece entitled “A Fiasco In The Making?  As Coronavirus Pandemic Takes Hold, We Are Making Decisions Without Reliable Data”.

While analyzing part of the Coronavirus numbers touted, Professor Ioannidis found that:

The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don’t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300.” [Bold & Underline Emphasis Added]

That is remarkably similar to the implications that stem from Gupta claimed, when she stated that the virus had been spreading for a nigh a month, thus, leading to inaccurate data.  Missing a month’s worth of data would severely skew any model, particularly a scenario as fluid as one having a virus.  As Ioannidis affirmed:

“Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the U.S., lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population.”[Bold Emphasis Added]

The mortality rate that was projected from the Diamond Princess focused only on the elderly, but when it was:

[projected] onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%.”[Bold Emphasis Added]

Why is that relevant?  Because the 0.125% death rate that Professor Ioannidis found falls right in line with Professor Gupta’s projection done with her team at Oxford, which was less than 1 in 1000, or 0.1%.  BOOM.  But those numbers don’t provoke fear, those numbers cannot push a viral agenda.

Predictably, Fergusson is still entrenched in his belief, stating that the Oxford model is too optimistic.  I’m not so sure about that however.

What about Ferguson’s projections, aren’t those too pessimistic?  Particularly when those projections are off by several orders of magnitude, which wasn’t the case with Gupta’s model, which line up astonishingly with what Professor Ioannidis was able to find.

But Gupta’s model from Oxford wasn’t the model that the mainstream media ran with, it was Ferguson’s Imperial College model, which like much of what we have talked about lately, helped create maximum fear and seems tenuous at best.  A reasonable approach would have taken several models into consideration, or at least considered them and proactively analyzed all of them.  That’s wasn’t the case though.

The illusion that spawns fear must always exist.

Until it doesn’t.

Suggested Reading:

The Coronavirus Propaganda Continues Unraveling: CBS Caught FAKING Part Of The Story
The Rapid Descent of Mainstream Media Credibility Centered Around The Coronavirus Contagion
Dr. Birx’s Official Story Propaganda – Social Engineering Success By Employing Maximum Fear
A Different Perspective On Neil Ferguson’s Projection Pullback And It’s Severely Overlooked Significance
Backpedaling 101: Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson Drastically Downgrades COVID-19 Projection
The Coronavirus House Of Cards
Dr. Deborah Birx’s Coronavirus Propaganda: Does NOT Want People To Be “Reassured” Of Negative Tests

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About Me:

Zy Marquiez is author of Amor Vincit Omnia – Love Conquers All, and also an avid book reviewer, poet, inquirer, an open-minded skeptic, health freedom advocate, and writer who aims at empowering individuals in many ways, while also delving deeper and regularly mirroring subjects like Consciousness, Education, Creativity, Individuality, Ancient History & Ancient Civilizations, Forbidden Archaeology, Big Pharma, Alternative Health, Space, Geoengineering, Social Engineering, Propaganda, and much more.

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