March 28, 2020
In a recent piece I detailed not only how highly-cited epidemiologist Neil Ferguson had to severely revise his Coronavirus projections downward, but more importantly, how he was off by orders of magnitude in his projection. Conversely, Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta had a different Coronavirus model, which offered significantly different projections that were glossed over by the mainstream media, and certainly weren’t off by orders of magnitude like Ferguson’s model was.
That was why Oxford epidemiologist Professor Gupta, who leads a team of researchers at Oxford in a Coronavirus modeling study, was so critical of Ferguson’s work when she stated bluntly:
“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model..”
What is more, in that previous piece I was able to juxtapose Professor Gupta’s model projection of 0.1%, or 1 in 1000, with the work of meta-research specialist from Stanford University School of Medicine, and co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Professor John P.A. Ioannidis, whose Coronavirus model when extended throughout the whole US population had a death rate of 0.125% and matched up with Gupta’s projection with keen precision.
That was why in my previous piece on the Coronavirus, I made it a point to state how Ferguson’s model was off by several orders of magnitude when other possibilities abounded, which is highly significant and something unsurprisingly overlooked by the mainstream establishment.
That compelled questions from several friends about the significance of Ferguson’s statistical pullback, which has prompted me to illustrate the problem of being off by orders magnitude from a different vantage point.
Rewinding the clock, instead of backpedaling like Ferguson did on his original projection, let’s take our example in the opposite direction. Simply for argumentative purposes, let’s imagine if Ferguson’s original estimate of 2,200,000 Million people dead in the US, and 500,000 potentially dead in the UK was actually higher by just one order of magnitude. Why not start small?
That would mean that Ferguson’s original estimate would have been 22,000,000 Million dead in the US, and 5,000,000 Million dead in the UK. And if we were to run a similar, though not exact scenario like what happened to Ferguson in his pullback (we’re only talking about one order of magnitude at the moment), then that means that Ferguson would have to drop his projection from 22 Million dead in the US, to 2.2 Million, and from 5 Million dead in the UK, all the way down to 500,000. See how significant those drops are? It’s much easier to see why orders of magnitude are important.
But see, Ferguson wasn’t just off by one order of magnitude, he was off by more than a factor of two. Let’s adjust our numbers again really quick.
Instead of 22 Million and 5 Million in the US and the UK respectively, let’s now make it 44 Million and 10 Million. That seems preposterous, but let’s just run with it just so we can view Ferguson’s statistical pullback with a wide-angle lens.
What would happen if Ferguson’s original numbers were 44 Million and 10 Million in the US and the UK, and then he had to pull all the way back to 2.2 Million and 500,000 respectively. That would be a virus projection that was off by more than 40 Million in the US and nigh 10 Million in the UK. Immediately the mind goes, “What!? How could Ferguson be so far off!?”
And yet, still, Ferguson was off by more than 2 orders of magnitude. The statistical revision under that hypothetical scenario would have been higher than what the last example showed.
It should be clear why I made sure to state it several times, and in several ways, that Ferguson’s Coronavirus model was off by several orders of magnitude, all the while Professor Gupta and her team at Oxford had a different model with another perspective that didn’t make that mistake and was ahead of the curve. This was because Gupta’s model had the virus spreading for at least a month earlier, which leads to drastically different results.
Isn’t it reasonable to state that it’s quite remarkable to have a highly-cited member of the establishment be that wrong and not have the mainstream media begin asking questions about how something like that could have happened? Particularly when other researchers not only had different virus models, but are light years closer to reality than Fergusson’s.
That is why Fergusson’s major revision is incredibly relevant. Ferguson’s work was highly cited, which was part of what helped generate a tsunami of fear that is still taking place, even though he himself had to severely adjust his Coronavirus projection.
To put it differently, let’s say 500 years from now the Earth is in turmoil. Due to that, the ‘United Earth Federation’ (this is flash fiction, so don’t read too into it) ends up needing to find a whole new Solar System given that there’s increased difficulties in ours. As such, one of the experts, the one that the fate of humanity rests on, says he’s found a Solar system with 80 planets, with a chance that 25% of those planets have water.
However, when the United Earth Federation warps into town after going through ET customs, they find that, no, there isn’t 80 planets. There’s not even a dozen!! There’s just 4. FOUR planets. That’s a decrease of two orders magnitude. That means that of those 80 planets, which had to be revised down to 4, only one had the chance of saving humanity given the 1 in 4 shot in that hypothetically scenario. What would happen in a scenario like that? EVERYONE WOULD BE FURIOUS!
Yet, as previously mentioned, Ferguson’s projection was off by more than that, more in the range of 2.5-3 orders of magnitude. Can you imagine 100-120 planets being revised to 4?
Yeah, Ferguson was off by that much.
And if one person within the mainstream establishment can make such a glaring mistake, so can other ones.
Or, as former Editor of The New England Journal of Medicine Marcia Angel stated in the New York Review of Books, in a piece titled “Drug Companies & Doctors: a Story of Corruption” on January 15, 2009:
“It is simply no longer possible to believe much of the clinical research that is published, or to rely on the judgment of trusted physicians or authoritative medical guidelines. I take no pleasure in this conclusion, which I reached slowly and reluctantly over my two decades as an editor of The New England Journal of Medicine.”[Bold Emphasis Added]
At first it might have seemed that I was overreacting, but when you look at the numbers adjusted from the newfound perspectives I showed, if anything, I was underreacting.
The whole point is that humans are not infallible, none of them. Why does the media and experts high priests such as Dr. Birx from the establishment act as such? Especially with so much riding on the line?
Then again, it’s only trillions of dollars that have been lost economically around the globe, and millions of jobs. Certainly nothing worth running a headline or two over such a serious statistical pullback.
What would have happened if even a part of the mainstream media and the establishment was willing to look at other virus models mindfully and reasonably, such as the one by Professor Sunetra Gupta? They would have looked at them with discerning eyes, showing the wide range of possibilities, urging people to be cautious and not fearful about the growing concerns around Corona. But the media didn’t do that.
The mainstream media and the establishment chose the model that engendered maximum fear as they almost always do, and was off by orders of magnitude. The mainstream media could have easily reported that there were multiple models, and that the situation was still tenuous at best, so additional data would have been needed for a more accurate model to be pushed unilaterally, which would have been a more mindful approach that would have spawned much less fear.
But the media didn’t employ mindfulness, they employed fear, and individuals should be highly skeptical of anyone, yet alone institutions, organizations and corporations that employ fear as an anchoring point in any subject. Why?
Because there is no reason to junction fear as an anchoring point when logic and reason are always possible. A reasonable approach would have sifted through various models mindfully, perhaps even seeking additional information, while making sure that catastrophic mistakes are not made, such as choosing to cite Ferguson’s model that was highly flawed and engendered maximum fear, but also deliberately overlooking Professor Gupta’s model, which isn’t the only one out there.
You might be asking, “But there is no way to tell which model will be right until much later.” That is a very reasonable statement to make. What are other options then? Researching multiple models, and waiting for a wider data set, unless you already have one. And ironically, Gupta’s Coronavirus model did have a wider data set that had the virus already being around a month earlier, but that was deliberately ignored by the mainstream media.
Ladies and gentlemen, if the mainstream media is overlooking Professor Gupta’s model on purpose, what else are they overlooking that you don’t about that can help save lives and make a serious difference not only on this subject, but in other areas as well?
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Zy Marquiez is author of Amor Vincit Omnia – Love Conquers All, and also an avid book reviewer, poet, inquirer, an open-minded skeptic, health freedom advocate, and writer who aims at empowering individuals in many ways, while also delving deeper and regularly mirroring subjects like Consciousness, Education, Creativity, Individuality, Ancient History & Ancient Civilizations, Forbidden Archaeology, Big Pharma, Alternative Health, Space, Geoengineering, Social Engineering, Propaganda, and much more.
Suggested Reading & Viewing:
Backpedaling 101: Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson Drastically Downgrades COVID-19 Projection
The Coronavirus House Of Cards
Dr. Deborah Birx’s Coronavirus Propaganda: Does NOT Want People To Be “Reassured” Of Negative Tests
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The Rise Of Censorship By ISPs, Working Around Censors & More
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The Divide & Conquer Left Right Paradigm
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Philosophy 101 by Socrates – An Introduction To Phylosophy Via Plato’s Apology By Peter Kreeft Ph.D.
How To Read A Book by Mortimer J. Adler & Charles Van Doren
A Different Kind Of Teacher by John Taylor Gatto
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The Imaginative Argument – A Practical Manifesto For Writers By Frank L. Cioffi
A Workbook For Arguments – A Complete Course In Critical Thinking by David Morrow
The Minds Of Men [Documentary] | Social Engineering & Mind Control
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Zen Mind Beginner’s Mind by Shunryu Susuzi
Socratic Logic V 3.1 by Peter Kreeft PhD
Dialectical Thinking – Zeno, Socrates, Kant, Marx by Tommi Juhani Hanjijarvi Ph.D.
The Trivium – The Liberal Arts Of Logic, Grammar & Rhetoric by Sister Mary Joseph Ph.D.
Why Read The Classics?
Getting Things done by David Allen
Classrooms Of The Heart [Mini Documentary] – John Taylor Gatto
Dumbing Us Down by John Taylor Gatto
History So It Doesn’t Repeat – The Deliberate Dumbing Down Of America with Charlotte Iserbyt
The Catastrophic Decline of Public Schooling: 21 Facts Why School Performs Poorly
Mindset Musings#1: Venturing Outside Of Comfort Zones
Rotten To The Common Core by Dr. Joseph P. Farrell & Gary Lawrence
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Against Public Schooling – How Public Education Cripples Our Kids By John Taylor Gatto
Social Engineering 101
The Tavistock Institute – Social Engineering The Masses By Daniel Estulin
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The Emergence Of Orwellian Newspeak & The Death Of Free Speech
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A Mind Of Your Own – The Truth About Depression by Dr. Kelly Brogan
Social Engineering 101
Propaganda by Edward Bernays
Drilling Through The Core by Sandra Stotski & Contributors
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Invisible Influence by Kevin Hogan
The Secret Space Program & Breakaway Civilization by Richard Dolan